Jihadi Terrorist Attacks in US More Than Double
Tactics & Targeting Expanding

The number of jihadi terrorist attacks in the US is now at the highest it has ever been and is continuing to rise based on attacks tracked in the IntelCenter Database (ICD). The current rate of attack in 2016 is at one attack every 37 days. In 2016 there have been nine attacks as of 28 Nov., which more than doubles the previous record of four attacks in 2015. Seventy-one percent of attacks in the US since 2002 have occurred in the past four years.

Small arms and bladed weapons were the most common tactics, which was driven by a significant increase in inspired attacks. The rise in inspired attacks also resulted in a shift with 62% of attacks occurring in areas not previously thought to be at significant risk from terrorism. Military/Police and recreational sectors were the most frequently targeted with a more detailed breakout putting police personnel, military facilities and civilians the most at risk. New York had the most attacks during the period, however, the attacks were spread out over a total of 14 states.

The dramatic rise of attacks is expected to continue to climb throughout 2017 with both inspired and directed attacks occurring. In the new environment, inspired attacks are expected to remain the greatest in volume with the largest geographical spread with directed attacks being less frequent and favoring high-profile targets in traditional locations such as New York City and Washington, DC. However, it is incorrect to presume that inspired attacks are confined to lower casualty counts. As both the Nice and Orlando attacks in 2016 demonstrated, a well-executed low-tech inspired attack can result in far more casualties than some sophisticated directed attacks.

Bladed weapons, small arms and vehicular assaults are expected to be the most common inspired tactics with VBIEDs and other more sophisticated tactics largely remaining within the toolbox of directed plotters. Police and military personnel are expected to remain the most at risk group for inspired attacks.

An analysis of the 21 attacks that occurred from 2002 to 28 Nov. 2016 revealed the following:

• New York had the greatest number of attacks at 14% (3) with California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Ohio and Texas tied at 9% (2). Arkansas, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Virginia each had 5% (1).

• The most commonly used tactic was Small Arms at 38% (8) followed by Bladed Weapons at 24% (5) and IED at 19% (4). Vehicular Assault came in next at 9% (2) followed by Suicide Bombing and VBIED at 5% (1). Bladed Weapons and Vehicular Assault are expected to continue to rise as the fastest growing method of attack based on current US and global trends.

• A total of 86 people were killed and 446 injured. The average number of people killed per attack is four and the average number injured is 22.

• The most targeted sector is Military/Police at 29% (6) followed by Recreation at 19% (4). Aviation, Civilians and Education came in next at 10% (3) with Shopping, Government, Rail, Restuarant and Political all coming in at 5% (1).

• A more granular look at targeting showed that Police Personnel, Military Facilities and Civilians were the most targeted at 14% (3). Sporting Event and Educational Facility came in next at 10% (2) with the remainder of attacks tied at 5% (1) for Civilian Airliner, Airport, Government Facility, Landmark, Large Gathering, Nightclub, Restaurant and Train Station.

• If you look at just 2002 - 2014, only 25% of attacks occurred in areas not previously thought to be at significant risk of terrorism. However, from 2015 - 28 Nov. 2016, the number leaps to 85%. This concerning development represents a significant shift in where terrorist attacks are occurring. Historically, significant attacks by jihadi groups were almost always focused in high-profile areas. This meant the focus of counterterrorism efforts could be concentrated in major cities where there were typically more resources available. While the threat of attacks in smaller cities and towns, could not be ruled out, there was a much lower risk of such attacks occurring. This is no longer the case. The recent wave of inspired and supported attacks has made a reality what many in counterterrorism feared and talked about for decades. Directed attacks by their nature tend to heavily involve key operational planners and others based in the terrorist group's primary area of operation. These operational planners have at their disposal a broader array of resources, training and professional aspirations that naturally steer their planning towards high-profile attacks. Major cities tend to provide the richest target sets for these types of operations. Inspired and supported attacks, however, work on a different model. The attackers and planners are often one in the same. They have limited resources, training and no professional aspirations as their first attack is often their last. Furthermore they tend to have a much more localized view on targeting. Instead of viewing a world of targets and selecting for the greatest effect, they base decisions off of what they are familiar with and have access to. Targets which a group operational planner would never even have known existed or considered worthy of an attack, suddenly move into the mix. This approach is supported by group's messages when calling for inspired attacks. Unfortunately this does not represent a reduction in threat to major cities as that attack rate has continued to hold in the US and has been accelerating in the West. Since it is impossible to accurately predict where groups like the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) will succeed in inspiring future attackers, there is no way to know where future attacks will occur. For the first time in the history of jihadi terrorism, attacks are occurring without geographic limiters. There is no city, town, village or rural area too small. Furthermore, as Orlando and Nice demonstrate, inspired and supported attacks can achieve mass casualties that rival directed plots. Directed attackers are continuing to attack high-profile targets while inspired attackers have dramatically increased the rate of attack against targets in the areas they live, work and visit, regardless of its size or prominence.

Reporting and original source materials are contained in the IntelCenter Database (ICD). Sign up for a free 10-day trial of the ICD and see additional details by clicking here.